Australian government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) – out now. Some of the major headlines on projections via Bloomberg : •Sees ’14-15 deficit at A$40.4b vs $29.8b gap in the May estimates •Assumes $60 per ton iron ore price over 2 years •Sees 2.5% inflation in 2q vs 2.25% in the May estimates •Sees 3% GDP growth in 2015-16 vs 3% in the May estimates •Sees 2.5% GDP growth in 2014-15 vs 2.5% in the May estimates •Sees 6.5% jobless rate by 2q vs 6.25% in the May estimates •Sees ’16-17 deficit A$20.8b vs may est. A$10.6b in the May estimates •Sees ’15-16 deficit A$31.2b vs may est. A$17.1b in the May ... (full story)
From an Elliott perspective, Nomura notes that USD/JPY range bound wave-B but there is equal chance that the recent pop satisfied all of wave-B. "Prices will need to break 117.05 to raise conviction that wave-B is complete. S/t, support is 118.05/117.90 and resistance is 119.00. Our bias, in either scenario below, is for a move back to the low end of the range near 117.25/05," Nomura projects. "Last thing, we are also noting a possible head & shoulders top with neckline support at 117.25; this move lower would be the right shoulder," Nomura argues. In EUR/USD, Nomura still holds the view that the ... (full story)
Quite a week!! WTI's 2nd worst week in over 3 years (down 10 of last 11 weeks) Dow's worst worst week in 3 years Financials worst week in 2 months Materials worst week since Sept 2011 VIX's Biggest week since Sept 2011 Gold's best week in 6 months Silver's last 2 weeks are best in 6 months HY Credit's worst 2 weeks since May 2012 IG Credit's worst week in 2 months 10Y Yield's best week since June 2012 US Oil Rig Count worst week in 2 years The USDollar's worst week since July 2013 USDJPY's worst week since June 2013 Portugal Bonds worst week since July 2011 Greek stocks worst week since 1987 Some serious intraday volatility ... (full story)
